Bitcoin’s halving won’t spark a lasting bull run over the next 12-18 months, relying on new investors through spot ETFs in the U.S. and in Hong Kong.

The highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving is expected to have a less significant impact on the cryptocurrency’s trajectory over the next 12-18 months, according to analysts at Kaiko. Contrary to earlier expectations, the decrease in miners’ rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC may not serve as the primary catalyst for Bitcoin‘s growth, according to a recent research report from the Paris-based blockchain firm.

“It [Bitcoin] may have enjoyed massive returns following its previous halvings, but the latest event comes as the asset class matures and macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain.”

Kaiko

This time, the analysts say Bitcoin’s future price depends on attracting new investors, especially through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and soon in Hong Kong, showing the cryptocurrency’s growing acceptance in mainstream finance.

Given that this is the first time a halving has taken place in a high-interest rate environment, the analysts say “there is no precedent to how Bitcoin will trade in the long-run.” As per Kaiko, robust liquidity and increasing demand “will play a crucial role in improving Bitcoin’s value proposition in the coming months.”

As Coin Insider Daily detailed earlier, the traditional post-halving price surge pattern may see deviation this time due to various factors, including the condensed nature of the price cycle surrounding this halving event. Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin has already witnessed significant price increases, reaching new record highs before the halving, including a peak at $73,750 in mid-March.